Campo de Fútbol de Mansilla de las Mulas · Analysis updated 17:29 UTC
Atlético Mansillés vs Mojados Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Atlético Mansillés and 0.60 for Mojados, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Atlético Mansillés the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atlético Mansillés win
61.7% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Mansillés home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Mojados away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlético Mansillés to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 25% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Atlético Mansillés and 0.60 for Mojados, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.7%
- 2–014.2%
- 0–011.1%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–18.5%
Recent form
Atlético Mansillés
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Arandina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Unionistas II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs La Virgen del Camino · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mirandés II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Bembibre · 2-0 (W)
Mojados
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs La Virgen del Camino · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-02T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Mansillés · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tordesillas · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Numancia II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Cristo Atlético · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-02T15:30:00.000Z · Atlético Mansillés 0-1 Mojados (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2026-01-04T15:30:00.000Z · Atlético Mansillés 1-1 Mojados (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2025-05-11T16:00:00.000Z · Atlético Mansillés 2-0 Mojados (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2025-01-11T14:45:00.000Z · Atlético Mansillés 4-1 Mojados (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristo Atlético | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Burgos Promesas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | UD Santa Marta | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Cultural Leonesa II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 5 | Palencia CF | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Bembibre | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Guijuelo | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | Atlético Mansillés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Arandina | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Almazán | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Villaralbo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | Turégano | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Calasanz de Soria | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Unionistas II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Colegios Diocesanos | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Salamanca II | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
| 18 | Mirandés II | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlético Mansillés win, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.