Estadio Atanasio Girardot · Referee F. Trujillo · Analysis updated 09:23 UTC
Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.85 for Deportes Tolima, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Atletico Nacional the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atletico Nacional win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Nacional home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportes Tolima away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–111.5%
- 2–011.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Atletico Nacional
- 2026-10-23T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Pasto · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cucuta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Chico · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Medellin · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-08T23:05:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Tolima · 0-0 (D)
Deportes Tolima
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Águilas Doradas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T21:05:00.000Z · A vs Jaguares · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-08T23:05:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Nacional · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T21:05:00.000Z · H vs Chico · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T23:05:00.000Z · A vs Fortaleza FC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-08T23:05:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 0-0 Deportes Tolima (Primera A)
- 2026-05-23T23:00:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 3-1 Deportes Tolima (Primera A)
- 2026-05-16T23:00:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 1-0 Deportes Tolima (Primera A)
- 2026-03-02T01:30:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 0-1 Deportes Tolima (Primera A)
- 2025-08-02T23:20:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 0-0 Deportes Tolima (Primera A)
- 2025-03-20T01:30:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 4-3 Deportes Tolima (Primera A)
- 2024-12-22T23:00:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 2-0 Deportes Tolima (Primera A)
- 2024-12-19T00:30:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 1-1 Deportes Tolima (Primera A)
- 2024-11-15T00:00:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 0-1 Deportes Tolima (Primera A)
- 2024-04-28T00:00:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 3-1 Deportes Tolima (Primera A)
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | -17 | 10 |
| 1 | America de Cali | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 31 |
| 2 | Atletico Nacional | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 29 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 29 |
| 4 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 5 | Bucaramanga | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 25 |
| 6 | Santa Fe | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | Once Caldas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Cucuta | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | Deportes Tolima | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 15 | 3 | 8 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Llaneros | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 | Junior | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 15 |
| 16 | Chico | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 15 |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | -8 | 14 |
| 18 | Fortaleza FC | 14 | 1 | 8 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 19 | Jaguares | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -12 | 10 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -13 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atletico Nacional win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.