Estadio Atanasio Girardot · Referee S. Bismark · Analysis updated 21:56 UTC
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Cali Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Atletico Nacional and 0.92 for Deportivo Cali, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Atletico Nacional the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atletico Nacional win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Nacional home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Cali away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.8%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–19.0%
Recent form
Atletico Nacional
- 2026-10-23T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Pasto · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cucuta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Chico · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Medellin · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-08T23:05:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Tolima · 0-0 (D)
Deportivo Cali
- 2026-09-23T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Fe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:10:00.000Z · H vs Cucuta · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T23:10:00.000Z · A vs Once Caldas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Millonarios · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T01:15:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Nacional · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-27T01:30:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 2-1 Deportivo Cali (Primera A)
- 2026-02-15T23:30:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 0-1 Deportivo Cali (Primera A)
- 2025-10-15T00:30:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 2-1 Deportivo Cali (Primera A)
- 2025-04-20T23:20:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 0-1 Deportivo Cali (Primera A)
- 2024-10-10T00:30:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 1-1 Deportivo Cali (Primera A)
- 2024-02-17T01:20:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 2-3 Deportivo Cali (Primera A)
- 2023-08-06T23:10:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 1-1 Deportivo Cali (Primera A)
- 2023-02-13T01:10:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 1-1 Deportivo Cali (Primera A)
- 2022-09-18T22:35:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 3-0 Deportivo Cali (Primera A)
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | -17 | 10 |
| 1 | America de Cali | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 31 |
| 2 | Atletico Nacional | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 29 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 29 |
| 4 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 5 | Bucaramanga | 14 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 25 |
| 6 | Santa Fe | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 25 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 23 |
| 8 | Once Caldas | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Cucuta | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | Deportes Tolima | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 15 | 3 | 8 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Llaneros | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -4 | 17 |
| 14 | Junior | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -11 | 15 |
| 16 | Chico | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 15 |
| 17 | Deportivo Pereira | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | -8 | 14 |
| 18 | Fortaleza FC | 14 | 1 | 8 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 19 | Jaguares | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -12 | 10 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -13 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atletico Nacional win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.