Estadio Atanasio Girardot · Referee J. Ospina · Analysis updated 00:47 UTC
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Cali Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Atletico Nacional and 1.10 for Deportivo Cali, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Atletico Nacional the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atletico Nacional win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Nacional home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Cali away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Atletico Nacional
- 2026-10-23T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Pasto · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Cucuta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Chico · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Medellin · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-08T23:05:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Tolima · 0-0 (D)
Deportivo Cali
- 2026-09-23T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Santa Fe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:10:00.000Z · H vs Cucuta · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T23:10:00.000Z · A vs Once Caldas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Millonarios · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T01:15:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Nacional · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-27T01:30:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 2-1 Deportivo Cali (Primera A)
- 2026-02-15T23:30:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 0-1 Deportivo Cali (Primera A)
- 2025-10-15T00:30:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 2-1 Deportivo Cali (Primera A)
- 2025-04-20T23:20:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 0-1 Deportivo Cali (Primera A)
- 2024-10-10T00:30:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 1-1 Deportivo Cali (Primera A)
- 2024-02-17T01:20:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 2-3 Deportivo Cali (Primera A)
- 2023-08-06T23:10:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 1-1 Deportivo Cali (Primera A)
- 2023-02-13T01:10:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 1-1 Deportivo Cali (Primera A)
- 2022-09-18T22:35:00.000Z · Atletico Nacional 3-0 Deportivo Cali (Primera A)
Copa Colombia table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Cali | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Alianza Valledupar | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Popayan | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Real Santander | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 0 |
| 1 | Millonarios | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 |
| 2 | Llaneros | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Chico | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| 4 | Patriotas | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 5 | Depor FC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -14 | 1 |
| 1 | Independiente Medellin | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | Fortaleza FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Leones FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 4 | Cucuta | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 5 | Orsomarso | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 1 | Deportivo Pereira | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | Real Cundinamarca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Águilas Doradas | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Jaguares | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Ind. Yumbo | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atletico Nacional win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.