Estadio Atanasio Girardot · Referee W. Roldan · Analysis updated 07:46 UTC
Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Atletico Nacional and 1.14 for Independiente Medellin, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives Atletico Nacional the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atletico Nacional win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Nacional home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Independiente Medellin away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Nacional to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Atletico Nacional and 1.14 for Independiente Medellin, a combined 3.14 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Atletico Nacional
- 2026-10-01T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Junior · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Chapecoense-sc · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Millonarios · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T01:15:00.000Z · A vs Llaneros · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T01:20:00.000Z · A vs Internacional de Bogota · 3-2 (W)
Independiente Medellin
- 2026-10-15T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Nacional · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T01:15:00.000Z · A vs America de Cali · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-06T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Fe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T01:05:00.000Z · H vs Millonarios · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T01:20:00.000Z · A vs Junior · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Colombia table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Cali | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Alianza Valledupar | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Popayan | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Real Santander | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 0 |
| 1 | Millonarios | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 |
| 2 | Llaneros | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Chico | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| 4 | Patriotas | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 5 | Depor FC | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -14 | 1 |
| 1 | Independiente Medellin | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | Fortaleza FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Leones FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 4 | Cucuta | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 5 | Orsomarso | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 1 | Deportivo Pereira | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 2 | Real Cundinamarca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Águilas Doradas | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Jaguares | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Ind. Yumbo | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atletico Nacional win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.