Estadio Atanasio Girardot · Analysis updated 06:35 UTC
Atlético Nacional W vs La Equidad W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Atlético Nacional W and 0.95 for La Equidad W, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Atlético Nacional W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atlético Nacional W win
53.0% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
La Equidad W away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlético Nacional W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 25% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Atlético Nacional W and 0.95 for La Equidad W, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 49%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.3%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Atlético Nacional W
La Equidad W
- 2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Millonarios W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-08T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Internacional Palmira W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Nacional W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-31T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Nacional W · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-27T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional Palmira W · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Femenina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Cali W | 26 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 61 |
| 2 | Millonarios W | 24 | 13 | 9 | 2 | 27 | 48 |
| 3 | Atlético Nacional W | 24 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 22 | 48 |
| 4 | América de Cali W | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 45 |
| 5 | Santa Fe W | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 41 |
| 6 | La Equidad W | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 34 |
| 7 | Internacional Palmira W | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | -7 | 33 |
| 8 | Orsomarso W | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | -5 | 23 |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín W | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Fortaleza W | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | -9 | 17 |
| 11 | Atlético Bucaramanga W | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | -19 | 17 |
| 12 | Llaneros W | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -22 | 13 |
| 13 | Junior W | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -12 | 12 |
| 14 | Real Santander W | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -18 | 10 |
| 15 | Once Caldas W | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -18 | 8 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pasto W | 16 | 1 | 4 | 11 | -16 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlético Nacional W win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.