TD Place Stadium · Analysis updated 05:46 UTC
Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.86 for Cavalry FC, a combined total of 2.87. That distribution gives Cavalry FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cavalry FC win
57.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.86
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Ottawa home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cavalry FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–36.2%
Recent form
Atlético Ottawa
- 2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs HFX Wanderers FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:10:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Forge · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 0-0 (D)
Cavalry FC
- 2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs HFX Wanderers FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Ottawa · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T20:30:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 1-3 Cavalry FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-07-04T20:00:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 0-3 Cavalry FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-04-12T20:00:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 1-3 Cavalry FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-11-09T22:00:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 2-1 Cavalry FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 3-0 Cavalry FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-08-23T23:00:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 2-2 Cavalry FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-06-28T22:00:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 2-0 Cavalry FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-04-26T21:00:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 3-1 Cavalry FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-09-15T21:00:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 2-2 Cavalry FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-08-03T23:00:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 1-2 Cavalry FC (Canadian Premier League)
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 35 | 60 |
| 2 | Forge | 28 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 58 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 28 | 13 | 4 | 11 | -3 | 43 |
| 4 | Supra du Quebec | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | -3 | 38 |
| 5 | Vancouver FC | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 37 |
| 6 | York United | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -23 | 30 |
| 7 | HFX Wanderers FC | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 28 | 2 | 9 | 17 | -29 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cavalry FC win, at 57.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.