TD Place Stadium · Referee M. Souare · Analysis updated 22:35 UTC
Atlético Ottawa vs HFX Wanderers FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.43 for HFX Wanderers FC, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Atlético Ottawa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Ottawa home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
HFX Wanderers FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.9%
- 1–07.8%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Atlético Ottawa
- 2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs HFX Wanderers FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:10:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Forge · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 0-0 (D)
HFX Wanderers FC
- 2026-10-17T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Vancouver FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-12T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Forge · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Ottawa · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:10:00.000Z · H vs York United · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 1-0 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 2-1 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-07-01T20:00:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 3-1 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 1-0 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-10-18T20:00:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 1-0 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-07-18T23:00:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 2-0 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-05-24T18:00:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 0-2 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-04-05T18:00:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 2-2 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 1-1 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-08-24T18:00:00.000Z · Atlético Ottawa 1-1 HFX Wanderers FC (Canadian Premier League)
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 57 |
| 2 | Forge | 27 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 57 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | -2 | 43 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 3 | 37 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | -4 | 35 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | -5 | 28 |
| 7 | York United | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -24 | 27 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 27 | 2 | 8 | 17 | -29 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.