TD Place Stadium · Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.43 for Supra du Quebec, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Atlético Ottawa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atlético Ottawa win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Ottawa home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Supra du Quebec away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlético Ottawa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 22% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.43 for Supra du Quebec, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–26.8%
- 1–06.7%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Atlético Ottawa
- 2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T20:00:00.000Z · A vs HFX Wanderers FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:10:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Forge · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 0-0 (D)
Supra du Quebec
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cavalry FC · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:10:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Ottawa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Forge · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 54 |
| 2 | Forge | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 54 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | -1 | 43 |
| 4 | Vancouver FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 34 |
| 5 | Supra du Quebec | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 32 |
| 6 | HFX Wanderers FC | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | -4 | 28 |
| 7 | York United | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -21 | 27 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 26 | 2 | 8 | 16 | -27 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlético Ottawa win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.