Atlético Paso vs A Madrid III Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.94 expected goals for Atlético Paso and 1.22 for A Madrid III, a combined total of 2.16. That distribution gives A Madrid III the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

71.7% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.94 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atlético Paso home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
A Madrid III away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates A Madrid III to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 28% / 29% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.94 goals for Atlético Paso and 1.22 for A Madrid III, a combined 2.16 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Atlético Paso win28%

Draw29%

A Madrid III win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

72%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

0–114.1%
1–113.2%
0–011.5%
1–010.8%
0–28.6%

Recent form

Atlético Paso

2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Albacete II · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs A Madrid III · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Calvo Sotelo · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Numancia · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-10T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Herbania · 1-1 (D)

A Madrid III

2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Paso · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Numancia · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Ávila · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-10T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Móstoles · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Conquense	6	4	1	1	7	13
2	A Madrid III	6	4	1	1	3	13
3	Numancia	6	3	3	0	5	12
4	Salamanca UDS	6	4	0	2	3	12
5	CF Talavera	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Real Valladolid II	6	3	1	2	7	10
7	SS Reyes	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Guadalajara	6	2	2	2	2	8
9	Gimnástica Segoviana	6	2	2	2	1	8
10	Navalcarnero	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	RSD Alcalá	6	2	1	3	0	7
12	Real Ávila	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Atlético Tordesillas	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Atlético Paso	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Calvo Sotelo	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Albacete II	6	1	2	3	-12	5
17	Real Madrid III	6	0	4	2	-3	4
18	Getafe II	6	0	3	3	-5	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.