· Analysis updated 17:03 UTC
Atlético Porcuna vs Arenas Armilla Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Atlético Porcuna and 2.05 for Arenas Armilla, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Arenas Armilla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Arenas Armilla win
60.0% probability
Expected goals
1.07 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Porcuna home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arenas Armilla away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Arenas Armilla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 19% / 21% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for Atlético Porcuna and 2.05 for Arenas Armilla, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–29.3%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–36.8%
Recent form
Atlético Porcuna
- 2026-10-25T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Marbelli · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Melilla · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Motril · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Churriana Vega · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Almería II · 0-4 (L)
Arenas Armilla
- 2026-10-18T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Alhaurino · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaga City · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Torre del Mar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Huétor Vega · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Arenas Armilla | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Almería II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Motril | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Málaga II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Marbelli | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | UD San Pedro | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Churriana Vega | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Granada II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Atlético Porcuna | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 12 | Alhaurino | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Torre del Mar | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Huétor Vega | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Atletico de Marbella | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Mancha Real | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Cantoria | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Malaga City | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Arenas Armilla win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.