Estadio Municipal San Benito · Analysis updated 06:35 UTC
Atlético Porcuna vs UD San Pedro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.39 expected goals for Atlético Porcuna and 1.41 for UD San Pedro, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives UD San Pedro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
63.0% probability
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Porcuna home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UD San Pedro away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates UD San Pedro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 37% / 25% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.39 goals for Atlético Porcuna and 1.41 for UD San Pedro, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–18.3%
Recent form
Atlético Porcuna
- 2026-10-18T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Melilla · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Motril · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Churriana Vega · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Almería II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Granada II · 2-1 (W)
UD San Pedro
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Marbelli · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Melilla · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Motril · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Churriana Vega · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Almería II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | Arenas Armilla | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | Almería II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Motril | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Málaga II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Marbelli | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | UD San Pedro | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Churriana Vega | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Granada II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Atlético Porcuna | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 12 | Alhaurino | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Torre del Mar | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Huétor Vega | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Atletico de Marbella | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Mancha Real | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Cantoria | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Malaga City | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -16 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.