· Analysis updated 10:26 UTC
Atlético Pulpileño vs Bullas Deportivo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Atlético Pulpileño and 1.27 for Bullas Deportivo, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Atlético Pulpileño the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atlético Pulpileño win
48.9% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Pulpileño home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlético Pulpileño to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 23% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Atlético Pulpileño and 1.27 for Bullas Deportivo, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.9%
Recent form
Atlético Pulpileño
- 2026-10-24T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bala Azul · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Santomera · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cotillas CD · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Bullas Deportivo · 0-0 (D)
Bullas Deportivo
- 2026-10-14T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Balsicas Atlético · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cartagena LU II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Santomera · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Pulpileño · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Algar · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santomera | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | San Javier | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Santa Cruz | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | UCAM Murcia II | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Unión Molinense | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | Águilas II | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Alcantarilla | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | Atlético Pulpileño | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Bala Azul | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Olímpico Totana | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | Cartagena LU II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Los Garres | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | SFC Minerva | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Cotillas CD | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Balsicas Atlético | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Algar | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 | Bullas Deportivo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 | Mazarrón FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlético Pulpileño win, at 48.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.