Alfonso Lastras Ramirez · Referee Jorge Abraham Camacho Peregrina, Mexico · Analysis updated 08:40 UTC
Atletico San Luis vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Atletico San Luis and 1.38 for Guadalajara Chivas, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Guadalajara Chivas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guadalajara Chivas win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico San Luis home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Guadalajara Chivas away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.8%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.0%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–09.3%
Recent form
Atletico San Luis
- 2026-10-21T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Queretaro · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Toluca · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Santos Laguna · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa · 3-1 (W)
Guadalajara Chivas
- 2026-10-05T01:10:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T23:07:00.000Z · H vs Club Queretaro · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T03:25:00.000Z · A vs Club America · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T01:07:00.000Z · H vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico San Luis · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 0-3 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2026-01-31T23:00:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 2-3 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2025-07-26T23:07:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 3-4 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2025-02-27T03:05:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 3-1 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2024-11-09T23:05:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 1-0 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2024-02-05T01:00:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 0-2 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2023-07-09T00:05:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 1-3 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2023-01-14T01:05:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 0-0 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2022-07-10T00:05:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 1-0 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
- 2022-03-03T03:00:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 2-2 Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Toluca | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 5 | Leon | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Atlas | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 21 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 20 |
| 8 | Club Queretaro | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 19 |
| 10 | Atletico San Luis | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 13 | Puebla | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -6 | 14 |
| 16 | CF Pachuca | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -24 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guadalajara Chivas win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.