Estadio Libertad Financiera · Referee Katia García · Analysis updated 14:35 UTC
Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Atletico San Luis and 1.13 for Necaxa, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Atletico San Luis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.2% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico San Luis home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Necaxa away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–19.8%
- 0–08.6%
- 2–18.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.20 (model 50.4% vs market 41.6%, edge +8.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.20 | 41.6% | 50.4% | 1.98 | +8.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.62 | 58.0% | 59.1% | 1.69 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.80 | 31.6% | 31.9% | 3.13 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 27.2% | 27.2% | 3.68 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.29 | 72.9% | 72.9% | 1.37 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.15 | 41.2% | 41.0% | 2.44 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 69.1% | 68.2% | 1.47 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 58.4% | 49.6% | 2.02 | -8.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Atletico San Luis
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Leon · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara Chivas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-31T02:10:00.000Z · A vs Monterrey · 3-1 (W)
Necaxa
- 2026-10-11T23:10:00.000Z · A vs CF Pachuca · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-28T03:10:00.000Z · H vs Club America · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico San Luis · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Puebla · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres UANL · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 3-1 Necaxa (Liga MX)
- 2026-02-07T01:00:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 1-4 Necaxa (Liga MX)
- 2025-12-23T17:00:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 0-2 Necaxa (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-10-27T01:00:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 3-4 Necaxa (Liga MX)
- 2025-01-25T01:00:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 0-3 Necaxa (Liga MX)
- 2024-11-07T01:00:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 1-1 Necaxa (Liga MX)
- 2024-03-09T03:00:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 1-3 Necaxa (Liga MX)
- 2023-10-23T00:00:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 4-0 Necaxa (Liga MX)
- 2023-06-23T23:00:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 2-2 Necaxa (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-01-07T01:00:00.000Z · Atletico San Luis 3-2 Necaxa (Liga MX)
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | Club Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 8 | Club Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 | CF Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 13 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlante FC | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 18 | FC Juarez | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -18 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.