Estadio Alfonso Lastras · Referee M. Gomez · Analysis updated 19:56 UTC
Atlético San Luis W vs Puebla W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.72 expected goals for Atlético San Luis W and 1.48 for Puebla W, a combined total of 5.20. That distribution gives Atlético San Luis W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atlético San Luis W win
77.7% probability
Expected goals
3.72 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético San Luis W home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Puebla W away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlético San Luis W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 12% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.72 goals for Atlético San Luis W and 1.48 for Puebla W, a combined 5.20 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.0%
- 4–16.5%
- 2–15.6%
- 3–25.2%
- 5–14.9%
Recent form
Atlético San Luis W
- 2026-08-09T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Tijuana W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Toluca W · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-24T23:00:00.000Z · A vs León W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-06T03:10:00.000Z · A vs Mazatlán W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-02T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul W · 3-2 (W)
Puebla W
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Monterrey W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Pumas UNAM W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Querétaro W · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-09-08T01:06:00.000Z · A vs León W · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Necaxa W · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga MX Femenil table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América W | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 31 |
| 2 | Monterrey W | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 30 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL W | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 28 |
| 4 | Juárez W | 12 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Toluca W | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 6 | Guadalajara W | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 24 |
| 7 | Atlético San Luis W | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM W | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | León W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Santos Laguna W | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 16 |
| 11 | Cruz Azul W | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 12 | Pachuca W | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| 13 | Atlas W | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -8 | 13 |
| 14 | Tijuana W | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 15 | Atlante W | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Querétaro W | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -15 | 6 |
| 17 | Puebla W | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -26 | 4 |
| 18 | Necaxa W | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | -47 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlético San Luis W win, at 77.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.