· Analysis updated 12:02 UTC
Atlético Tordesillas vs Navalcarnero Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Atlético Tordesillas and 1.41 for Navalcarnero, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Atlético Tordesillas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atlético Tordesillas win
45.0% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Tordesillas home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Navalcarnero away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlético Tordesillas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Atlético Tordesillas and 1.41 for Navalcarnero, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–07.6%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–06.5%
Recent form
Atlético Tordesillas
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnástica Segoviana · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid III · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Salamanca UDS · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Calvo Sotelo · 0-1 (L)
Navalcarnero
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RSD Alcalá · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Murcia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Conquense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Saguntino · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tordesillas · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conquense | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | SS Reyes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | CF Talavera | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Real Valladolid II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 5 | A Madrid III | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Numancia | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Salamanca UDS | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Navalcarnero | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Atlético Tordesillas | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Atlético Paso | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Guadalajara | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Albacete II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | RSD Alcalá | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Real Ávila | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Calvo Sotelo | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Getafe II | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 | Real Madrid III | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlético Tordesillas win, at 45.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.