Estadio Las Salinas · Referee Santiago Quirce · Analysis updated 13:02 UTC
Atlético Tordesillas vs Ribert Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Atlético Tordesillas and 0.90 for Ribert, a combined total of 2.23. That distribution gives Atlético Tordesillas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atlético Tordesillas win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Tordesillas home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ribert away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlético Tordesillas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 28% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Atlético Tordesillas and 0.90 for Ribert, a combined 2.23 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.3%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–010.8%
- 0–19.7%
- 2–09.5%
Recent form
Atlético Tordesillas
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Calvo Sotelo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Albacete II · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs SS Reyes · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Cristo Atlético · 1-1 (D)
Ribert
- 2026-08-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Guijuelo · 2-1 (W)
- 2022-04-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Mirandés II · 2-1 (W)
- 2022-04-24T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Astorga · 0-2 (L)
- 2022-04-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ciudad Rodrigo · 3-2 (W)
- 2022-04-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Numancia II · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristo Atlético | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Cultural Leonesa II | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | Burgos Promesas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Bembibre | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | UD Santa Marta | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 | Palencia CF | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Mansillés | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Almazán | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Guijuelo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Arandina | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Calasanz de Soria | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Villaralbo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Turégano | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Unionistas II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Colegios Diocesanos | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 4 |
| 17 | Salamanca II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Mirandés II | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atlético Tordesillas win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.