· Analysis updated 14:22 UTC
Atlético Tordesillas vs UD Santa Marta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Atlético Tordesillas and 1.45 for UD Santa Marta, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives UD Santa Marta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Tordesillas home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
UD Santa Marta away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 0–19.3%
- 1–28.7%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Atlético Tordesillas
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Calvo Sotelo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Albacete II · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs SS Reyes · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Cristo Atlético · 1-1 (D)
UD Santa Marta
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Burgos Promesas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cultural Leonesa II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Salamanca UDS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Palencia CF · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Colegios Diocesanos · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T09:30:00.000Z · Atlético Tordesillas 1-1 UD Santa Marta (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-03-14T15:30:00.000Z · Atlético Tordesillas 2-1 UD Santa Marta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2025-11-02T15:15:00.000Z · Atlético Tordesillas 2-1 UD Santa Marta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2025-05-11T16:00:00.000Z · Atlético Tordesillas 1-3 UD Santa Marta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2025-01-12T11:00:00.000Z · Atlético Tordesillas 2-1 UD Santa Marta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2024-02-25T15:30:00.000Z · Atlético Tordesillas 0-0 UD Santa Marta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2023-10-08T14:30:00.000Z · Atlético Tordesillas 0-1 UD Santa Marta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2023-04-22T16:00:00.000Z · Atlético Tordesillas 1-2 UD Santa Marta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2023-01-08T15:15:00.000Z · Atlético Tordesillas 0-1 UD Santa Marta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2022-01-23T15:15:00.000Z · Atlético Tordesillas 1-2 UD Santa Marta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.