Atlético Tucumán Res. vs Instituto Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Atlético Tucumán Res. and 1.05 for Instituto Res., a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Instituto Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atlético Tucumán Res. home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Instituto Res. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Instituto Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 34% / 30% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Atlético Tucumán Res. and 1.05 for Instituto Res., a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Atlético Tucumán Res. win34%

Draw30%

Instituto Res. win36%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score42%

Correct score

1–113.5%
0–113.2%
1–012.9%
0–012.5%
1–27.1%

Recent form

Atlético Tucumán Res.

2026-10-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Mendoza 2 · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central Res. · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Córdoba Res. · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Banfield Res. · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-22T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Córdoba SdE Res. · 1-0 (W)

Instituto Res.

2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Res. · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-02T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Córdoba Res. · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Banfield Res. · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi Res. · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Reserve League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vélez Sársfield Res.	20	15	2	3	29	47
2	Boca Juniors Res.	20	12	3	5	24	39
3	Racing Club Res.	21	11	6	4	7	39
4	River Plate Res.	21	11	4	6	9	37
5	Independiente Res.	19	11	3	5	19	36
6	Lanús Res.	19	11	2	6	13	35
7	Newell's Old Boys Res.	19	10	4	5	9	34
8	Quilmes 2	18	10	3	5	8	33
9	Defensa y Justicia Res.	18	9	5	4	14	32
10	Atlético Tucumán Res.	19	9	3	7	-2	30
11	Unión Santa Fe Res.	18	7	8	3	4	29
12	Estudiantes La Plata Res	18	8	4	6	9	28
13	Argentinos Juniors Res.	18	7	7	4	6	28
14	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	18	8	3	7	-2	27
15	Talleres Córdoba Res.	18	7	5	6	6	26
16	Huracán Res.	18	7	5	6	6	26
17	Rosario Central Res.	18	7	5	6	3	26
18	Platense Res.	18	7	5	6	-3	26
19	Deportivo Riestra Res.	18	7	4	7	7	25
20	Independiente Riva. Res.	18	7	3	8	0	24
21	Instituto Res.	18	5	9	4	-1	24
22	San Lorenzo Res.	18	6	6	6	-2	24
23	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	18	6	5	7	2	23
24	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	18	6	5	7	-3	23
25	Banfield Res.	18	6	5	7	-4	23
26	Ferro 2	18	6	4	8	-3	22
27	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	18	5	4	9	-12	19
28	Colón Res.	18	5	3	10	-8	18
29	Aldosivi Res.	18	5	3	10	-11	18
30	Barracas Central Res.	18	4	5	9	-13	17
31	Sarmiento Res.	18	4	4	10	-10	16
32	Tigre Res.	18	4	4	10	-10	16
33	Godoy Cruz Res.	18	4	3	11	-10	15
34	Atl. Rafaela 2	18	3	3	12	-15	12
35	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	18	2	5	11	-23	11
36	San Martín San Juan Res.	18	2	2	14	-43	8
1	Independiente Res.	14	10	3	1	20	33
2	Lanús Res.	14	9	3	2	13	30
3	Deportivo Riestra Res.	14	8	2	4	11	26
4	Estudiantes La Plata Res	14	7	4	3	10	25
5	Boca Juniors Res.	14	7	4	3	8	25
6	Belgrano Córdoba Res.	14	7	4	3	1	25
7	Vélez Sársfield Res.	14	6	6	2	12	24
8	Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 2	14	6	6	2	5	24
9	Rosario Central Res.	14	6	6	2	2	24
10	River Plate Res.	14	5	8	1	9	23
11	Talleres Córdoba Res.	14	6	5	3	5	23
12	Gimnasia Mendoza 2	14	6	4	4	2	22
13	San Lorenzo Res.	14	6	3	5	3	21
14	Atl. Rafaela 2	14	5	6	3	0	21
15	Huracán Res.	14	6	2	6	2	20
16	Sarmiento Res.	14	4	7	3	3	19
17	Godoy Cruz Res.	14	4	7	3	2	19
18	Instituto Res.	14	4	7	3	0	19
19	Newell's Old Boys Res.	14	4	6	4	3	18
20	Unión Santa Fe Res.	14	3	8	3	4	17
21	Gimnasia La Plata Res.	14	4	5	5	3	17
22	Quilmes 2	14	4	5	5	-3	17
23	Atlético Tucumán Res.	14	4	5	5	-4	17
24	Defensa y Justicia Res.	14	3	7	4	0	16
25	Aldosivi Res.	14	3	6	5	-3	15
26	Independiente Riva. Res.	14	4	3	7	-6	15
27	Tigre Res.	14	4	3	7	-6	15
28	Argentinos Juniors Res.	14	3	5	6	-5	14
29	Racing Club Res.	14	2	7	5	-6	13
30	San Martín San Juan Res.	14	3	4	7	-11	13
31	Banfield Res.	14	3	3	8	-12	12
32	Central Córdoba SdE Res.	14	3	3	8	-12	12
33	Colón Res.	14	3	2	9	-11	11
34	Barracas Central Res.	14	1	7	6	-11	10
35	Platense Res.	14	0	7	7	-11	7
36	Ferro 2	14	1	3	10	-17	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.