· Analysis updated 20:43 UTC
Atlético Tucumán Res. vs River Plate Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.82 expected goals for Atlético Tucumán Res. and 1.22 for River Plate Res., a combined total of 2.04. That distribution gives River Plate Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
River Plate Res. win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
0.82 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Tucumán Res. home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
River Plate Res. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.8%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–013.0%
- 1–010.7%
- 0–29.7%
Recent form
Atlético Tucumán Res.
- 2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Córdoba Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Banfield Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Córdoba SdE Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central Res. · 0-1 (L)
River Plate Res.
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Res. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-01T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors Res. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-08T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi Res. · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-18T20:00:00.000Z · Atlético Tucumán Res. 1-4 River Plate Res. (Reserve League)
- 2026-03-19T23:00:00.000Z · Atlético Tucumán Res. 0-1 River Plate Res. (Reserve League)
- 2025-09-11T21:00:00.000Z · Atlético Tucumán Res. 0-1 River Plate Res. (Reserve League)
- 2025-04-09T18:00:00.000Z · Atlético Tucumán Res. 0-3 River Plate Res. (Reserve League)
- 2024-09-19T22:00:00.000Z · Atlético Tucumán Res. 1-1 River Plate Res. (Reserve League)
- 2024-04-10T22:00:00.000Z · Atlético Tucumán Res. 1-4 River Plate Res. (Reserve League)
- 2023-09-09T00:00:00.000Z · Atlético Tucumán Res. 2-2 River Plate Res. (Reserve League)
- 2023-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · Atlético Tucumán Res. 1-2 River Plate Res. (Reserve League)
- 2022-06-09T14:00:00.000Z · Atlético Tucumán Res. 1-0 River Plate Res. (Reserve League)
- 2022-04-25T12:00:00.000Z · Atlético Tucumán Res. 0-4 River Plate Res. (Reserve League)
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is River Plate Res. win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.