· Analysis updated 20:39 UTC
Atlético Tucumán Res. vs Rosario Central Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Atlético Tucumán Res. and 1.09 for Rosario Central Res., a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Rosario Central Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.8% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Tucumán Res. home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rosario Central Res. away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rosario Central Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 32% / 30% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Atlético Tucumán Res. and 1.09 for Rosario Central Res., a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.5%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–27.5%
Recent form
Atlético Tucumán Res.
- 2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Córdoba Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Banfield Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Córdoba SdE Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central Res. · 0-1 (L)
Rosario Central Res.
- 2026-10-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentinos Juniors Res. · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Aldosivi Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia La Plata Res. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Unión Santa Fe Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newell's Old Boys Res. · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.