· Analysis updated 14:16 UTC
Atlético Tucumán Res. vs Unión Santa Fe Res. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.82 expected goals for Atlético Tucumán Res. and 1.01 for Unión Santa Fe Res., a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Unión Santa Fe Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.2% probability
Expected goals
0.82 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atlético Tucumán Res. home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Unión Santa Fe Res. away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Unión Santa Fe Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 29% / 32% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.82 goals for Atlético Tucumán Res. and 1.01 for Unión Santa Fe Res., a combined 1.83 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.2%
- 0–016.0%
- 1–113.3%
- 1–013.2%
- 0–28.2%
Recent form
Atlético Tucumán Res.
- 2026-10-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Barracas Central Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-08T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Talleres Córdoba Res. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Banfield Res. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-22T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Córdoba SdE Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central Res. · 0-1 (L)
Unión Santa Fe Res.
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Colón Res. · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigre Res. · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs San Lorenzo Res. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vélez Sársfield Res. · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-26T00:30:00.000Z · A vs River Plate Res. · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Reserve League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.