Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro · Referee N. Ramirez · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Atletico Tucuman and 0.59 for Barracas Central, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Atletico Tucuman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atletico Tucuman win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.59
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Tucuman home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Barracas Central away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–020.2%
- 0–017.4%
- 1–111.9%
- 2–011.7%
- 0–110.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.53 (model 69.4% vs market 60.9%, edge +8.5 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.53 | 60.9% | 69.4% | 1.44 | +8.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.91 | 49.5% | 50.3% | 1.99 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 80.9% | 81.3% | 1.23 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.83 | 49.7% | 49.8% | 2.01 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 31.4% | 31.5% | 3.17 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 4.80 | 18.9% | 18.8% | 5.32 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.6% | 68.6% | 1.46 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.38 | 39.1% | 30.6% | 3.27 | -8.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Atletico Tucuman
- 2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Independ. Rivadavia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T20:30:00.000Z · H vs River Plate · 1-2 (L)
Barracas Central
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Tucuman · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Independ. Rivadavia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-14T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Banfield · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos JRS · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-01T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Tigre · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · Atletico Tucuman 2-3 Barracas Central (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-03-16T18:30:00.000Z · Atletico Tucuman 1-2 Barracas Central (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-07-29T18:00:00.000Z · Atletico Tucuman 2-0 Barracas Central (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-02-12T00:00:00.000Z · Atletico Tucuman 0-2 Barracas Central (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · Atletico Tucuman 1-0 Barracas Central (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-03-19T00:30:00.000Z · Atletico Tucuman 1-1 Barracas Central (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-08-24T00:30:00.000Z · Atletico Tucuman 4-0 Barracas Central (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atletico Tucuman win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.