Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro · Referee S. Martinez · Analysis updated 11:00 UTC
Atletico Tucuman vs Belgrano Cordoba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Atletico Tucuman and 0.80 for Belgrano Cordoba, a combined total of 1.55. That distribution gives Belgrano Cordoba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 33%, with the draw at 36%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 20% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 33% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.6% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Tucuman home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Belgrano Cordoba away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 31% / 36% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Atletico Tucuman and 0.80 for Belgrano Cordoba, a combined 1.55 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–021.2%
- 0–117.0%
- 1–015.9%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–26.8%
Recent form
Atletico Tucuman
- 2026-10-24T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Tigre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi · 0-1 (L)
Belgrano Cordoba
- 2026-10-18T23:15:00.000Z · H vs River Plate · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Sarmiento Junin · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 20%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.