Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro · Referee A. Gariano · Analysis updated 20:04 UTC
Atletico Tucuman vs Central Cordoba de Santiago Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Atletico Tucuman and 0.75 for Central Cordoba de Santiago, a combined total of 2.06. That distribution gives Atletico Tucuman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atletico Tucuman win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
1.31 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Tucuman home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Central Cordoba de Santiago away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Tucuman to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 29% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Atletico Tucuman and 0.75 for Central Cordoba de Santiago, a combined 2.06 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.7%
- 0–012.7%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–010.9%
- 0–19.6%
Recent form
Atletico Tucuman
- 2026-10-24T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Tigre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi · 0-1 (L)
Central Cordoba de Santiago
- 2026-10-19T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Newells Old Boys · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes L.P. · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-05T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa Y Justicia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atletico Tucuman win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.