Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena · Analysis updated 15:13 UTC
Atletico Tucuman vs Platense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Atletico Tucuman and 0.90 for Platense, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Atletico Tucuman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Atletico Tucuman win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Tucuman home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Platense away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Tucuman to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 25% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Atletico Tucuman and 0.90 for Platense, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.1%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Atletico Tucuman
- 2026-10-24T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Tigre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi · 0-1 (L)
Platense
- 2026-10-17T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Lanus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Argentinos JRS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Velez Sarsfield · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Estudiantes L.P. · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Newells Old Boys · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atletico Tucuman win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.