Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro · Referee F. Echenique · Analysis updated 02:02 UTC
Atletico Tucuman vs Racing Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Atletico Tucuman and 1.03 for Racing Club, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Atletico Tucuman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atletico Tucuman win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atletico Tucuman home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Tucuman to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 27% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Atletico Tucuman and 1.03 for Racing Club, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 48%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Atletico Tucuman
- 2026-10-24T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Tigre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia L.P. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Barracas Central · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldosivi · 0-1 (L)
Racing Club
- 2026-10-18T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Independiente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Belgrano Cordoba · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-05T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Juniors · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T00:15:00.000Z · H vs Sarmiento Junin · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atletico Tucuman win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.