Atletik Kuklen vs Spartak Plovdiv Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Atletik Kuklen and 2.50 for Spartak Plovdiv, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Spartak Plovdiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Spartak Plovdiv win

72.8% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.88 – 2.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atletik Kuklen home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Plovdiv away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Spartak Plovdiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 11% / 16% / 73% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.88 goals for Atletik Kuklen and 2.50 for Spartak Plovdiv, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Atletik Kuklen win11%

Draw16%

Spartak Plovdiv win73%

Double chance 1X

27%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

89%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

0–210.7%
1–29.4%
0–38.9%
0–18.6%
1–37.8%

Recent form

Atletik Kuklen

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sayana Haskovo · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Yambol 1915 · 0-7 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zagorets · 3-4 (L)

Spartak Plovdiv

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodopa Smolyan · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gigant Saedinenie · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maritsa Plovdiv · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rozova dolina · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sayana Haskovo · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Levski Krumovgrad	11	11	0	0	27	33
2	Maritsa Milevo	11	9	0	2	15	27
3	Spartak Plovdiv	10	9	0	1	14	27
4	Sayana Haskovo	11	6	3	2	8	21
5	Yambol 1915	11	6	2	3	16	20
6	Neftochimic Burgas	10	6	1	3	7	19
7	Rodopa Smolyan	11	5	2	4	-1	17
8	Sozopol	11	5	1	5	2	16
9	Gigant Saedinenie	11	5	1	5	2	16
10	Rozova dolina	11	2	7	2	-1	13
11	Zagorets	11	4	1	6	-9	13
12	Dimitrovgrad	11	3	2	6	-2	11
13	Botev Plovdiv II	11	2	5	4	-4	11
14	Atletik Kuklen	10	2	1	7	-15	7
15	Lokomotiv Plovdiv II	11	2	1	8	-21	7
16	Sekirovo Rakovski	11	1	3	7	-13	6
17	Levski Karlovo	11	2	0	9	-16	6
18	Maritsa Plovdiv	10	1	2	7	-9	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Spartak Plovdiv win, at 72.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.