Atmosfera vs Ekranas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Atmosfera and 1.28 for Ekranas, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Atmosfera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Atmosfera win

55.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.05 – 1.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atmosfera home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ekranas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Atmosfera win55%

Draw21%

Ekranas win24%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

2–19.6%
1–19.4%
2–07.6%
1–07.4%
3–16.6%

Recent form

Atmosfera

2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BFA · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Babrungas · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tauras · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Neptūną Klaipėda · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dainava · 1-1 (D)

Ekranas

2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FA Šiauliai II · 2-6 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kauno Žalgiris II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Garliava · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Be1 NFA · 0-5 (L)
2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hegelmann II · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-06-27T13:00:00.000Z · Atmosfera 2-1 Ekranas (1 Lyga)
2025-11-01T12:00:00.000Z · Atmosfera 3-0 Ekranas (1 Lyga)
2025-06-21T12:00:00.000Z · Atmosfera 5-0 Ekranas (1 Lyga)
2024-10-19T12:00:00.000Z · Atmosfera 0-1 Ekranas (1 Lyga)
2024-06-02T11:00:00.000Z · Atmosfera 3-2 Ekranas (1 Lyga)
2022-10-21T16:00:00.000Z · Atmosfera 1-4 Ekranas (1 Lyga)
2022-06-18T12:00:00.000Z · Atmosfera 0-1 Ekranas (1 Lyga)

1 Lyga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Minija	27	22	1	4	53	67
2	Babrungas	27	21	4	2	35	67
3	Be1 NFA	27	18	3	6	21	57
4	Žalgiris II	28	15	4	9	8	49
5	BFA	28	14	4	10	1	46
6	Dainava	27	12	8	7	12	44
7	Tauras	27	13	5	9	11	44
8	Neptūną Klaipėda	28	14	2	12	-2	44
9	Atmosfera	27	10	7	10	8	37
10	Jonava	28	8	6	14	-7	30
11	Garliava	28	8	5	15	-3	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	8	2	17	-25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	7	4	16	-27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	7	2	18	-22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	4	6	17	-30	18
16	Ekranas	28	5	3	20	-33	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Atmosfera win, at 55.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.