Atmosfera vs Jonava Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Atmosfera and 1.03 for Jonava, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Atmosfera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Atmosfera win

49.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atmosfera home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jonava away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atmosfera to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 25% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Atmosfera and 1.03 for Jonava, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Atmosfera win49%

Draw25%

Jonava win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.1%
1–011.7%
2–19.4%
2–09.1%
0–17.8%

Recent form

Atmosfera

2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BFA · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Babrungas · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tauras · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Neptūną Klaipėda · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dainava · 1-1 (D)

Jonava

2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Dainava · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Transinvest 2 · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FA Šiauliai II · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kauno Žalgiris II · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-07T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ekranas · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1 Lyga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Minija	26	22	1	3	54	67
2	Babrungas	27	21	4	2	35	67
3	Be1 NFA	26	17	3	6	20	54
4	Žalgiris II	27	14	4	9	6	46
5	Tauras	26	13	5	8	12	44
6	Dainava	27	12	8	7	12	44
7	Neptūną Klaipėda	27	14	2	11	0	44
8	BFA	27	13	4	10	0	43
9	Atmosfera	26	9	7	10	5	34
10	Jonava	27	8	6	13	-4	30
11	Garliava	27	8	5	14	-1	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	8	2	17	-25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	7	4	16	-27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	7	2	18	-22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	4	6	17	-30	18
16	Ekranas	27	4	3	20	-35	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Atmosfera win, at 49.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.