· Analysis updated 17:41 UTC
Atromitos Patras vs Aris Filiates Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.07 expected goals for Atromitos Patras and 0.93 for Aris Filiates, a combined total of 4.01. That distribution gives Atromitos Patras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Atromitos Patras win
79.6% probability
Expected goals
3.07 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aris Filiates away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atromitos Patras to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 12% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.07 goals for Atromitos Patras and 0.93 for Aris Filiates, a combined 4.01 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 58%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
20%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.8%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–18.0%
- 4–06.8%
Recent form
Atromitos Patras
Aris Filiates
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Agios Matthaios · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tilikratis · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Trikala · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Stavros · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-03-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Elassona · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panegialios | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Atromitos Patras | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 10 |
| 3 | Preveza | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 4 | Panachaiki FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Plataria | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Tilikratis | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Pallixouriakos | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Aris Filiates | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Agios Matthaios | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 10 | Lefkimmi | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 11 | Panagriniakos | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 12 | Levante | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atromitos Patras win, at 79.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.