· Analysis updated 16:36 UTC
Atromitos Patras vs Preveza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Atromitos Patras and 1.06 for Preveza, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Atromitos Patras the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Atromitos Patras win
56.5% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Preveza away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atromitos Patras to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Atromitos Patras and 1.06 for Preveza, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.3%
- 3–16.2%
Recent form
Atromitos Patras
Preveza
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panagriniakos · 2-0 (W)
- 2021-06-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amvrakikos Loutrou · 0-0 (D)
- 2021-06-02T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Acheron Kanalaki · 0-1 (L)
- 2021-05-30T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Asteras Kalirachis · 2-2 (D)
- 2021-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Panagriniakos · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panegialios | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Atromitos Patras | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 10 |
| 3 | Preveza | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 4 | Panachaiki FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Plataria | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Tilikratis | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Pallixouriakos | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Aris Filiates | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Agios Matthaios | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 10 | Lefkimmi | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 11 | Panagriniakos | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 3 |
| 12 | Levante | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Atromitos Patras win, at 56.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.