Peristeri Stadium · Analysis updated 11:53 UTC
Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.98 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives AEK Athens FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
AEK Athens FC win
65.8% probability
Expected goals
0.77 – 1.98
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atromitos home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AEK Athens FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AEK Athens FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 14% / 21% / 66% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.77 goals for Atromitos and 1.98 for AEK Athens FC, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.7%
- 0–212.5%
- 1–19.7%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–38.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.34 | 67.5% | 70.3% | 1.42 | +2.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 77.5% | 79.5% | 1.26 | +2.0 |
| Match result | Home | 7.40 | 12.6% | 13.7% | 7.30 | +1.1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.74 | 52.8% | 53.7% | 1.86 | +0.9 |
| Match result | Away | 1.43 | 65.0% | 65.8% | 1.52 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.97 | 47.5% | 48.2% | 2.07 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.67 | 34.8% | 34.3% | 2.92 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.78 | 52.5% | 51.8% | 1.93 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.95 | 47.2% | 46.3% | 2.16 | -0.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.06 | 87.7% | 86.4% | 1.16 | -1.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.15 | 22.4% | 20.6% | 4.85 | -1.8 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.78 | 32.5% | 29.7% | 3.37 | -2.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Atromitos
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Asteras Tripolis · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kifisia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs PAOK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraklis 1908 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kalamata · 1-1 (D)
AEK Athens FC
- 2026-10-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhtar Donetsk · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs OFI · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Volos NFC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Panserraikos · 8-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 17 |
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | PAOK | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 6 | Kifisia | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Kalamata | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | OFI | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Iraklis 1908 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Panetolikos | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Levadiakos | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
| 13 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AEK Athens FC win, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.