Atyrau vs Irtysh Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Atyrau and 1.18 for Irtysh, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Irtysh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.7% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atyrau home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Irtysh away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Atyrau win35%

Draw28%

Irtysh win37%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.2%
0–111.5%
1–011.2%
0–09.8%
1–27.8%

Recent form

Atyrau

2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ordabasy · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaisar · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyzyl-Zhar · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Astana · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Okzhetpes · 0-2 (L)

Irtysh

2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Altay · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Okzhetpes · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhetysu · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Tobol Kostanay · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-16T14:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 1-1 Irtysh (Premier League)
2019-08-31T13:30:00.000Z · Atyrau 0-3 Irtysh (Premier League)
2019-05-26T12:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 0-1 Irtysh (Premier League)
2019-03-15T09:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 1-3 Irtysh (Premier League)
2018-09-30T09:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 0-1 Irtysh (Premier League)
2018-08-12T14:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 2-0 Irtysh (Premier League)
2018-03-11T09:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 1-2 Irtysh (Premier League)
2017-08-13T13:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 0-0 Irtysh (Premier League)
2017-05-20T13:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 1-1 Irtysh (Premier League)
2017-03-18T10:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 0-1 Irtysh (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ordabasy	26	19	4	3	33	61
2	Kairat Almaty	26	18	6	2	33	60
3	FC Astana	26	14	6	6	16	48
4	Okzhetpes	28	14	6	8	5	48
5	Aktobe	27	13	6	8	9	45
6	Yelimay Semey	27	11	8	8	1	41
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	28	12	4	12	1	40
8	Ulytau	27	9	8	10	-6	35
9	Kaspiy	27	9	5	13	-8	32
10	Zhenys	28	8	8	12	-9	32
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	28	7	7	14	-10	28
12	Atyrau	26	5	11	10	-7	26
13	Irtysh	27	6	8	13	-11	26
14	Zhetysu	28	6	7	15	-18	25
15	Kaisar	28	4	12	12	-15	24
16	Altay	27	5	8	14	-14	23

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.