Turkestan Arena · Referee A. Tasybaev · Analysis updated 02:45 UTC
Atyrau vs Kairat Almaty Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.63 expected goals for Atyrau and 1.40 for Kairat Almaty, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Kairat Almaty the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.
Model pick
Kairat Almaty to Win
55.8% probability
Expected goals
0.63 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.4%
- 0–013.1%
- 0–212.9%
- 1–111.6%
- 1–08.3%
Why the model likes this
Kairat Almaty away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kairat Almaty to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 17% / 28% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.63 goals for Atyrau and 1.40 for Kairat Almaty, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 33% and both teams to score at 35%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.
Recent form
Atyrau
Kairat Almaty
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulytau · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Levski Sofia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Levski Sofia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Omonia Nicosia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ordabasy · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 22 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 27 | 52 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 21 | 14 | 6 | 1 | 27 | 48 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 38 |
| 4 | Aktobe | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 35 |
| 5 | Okzhetpes | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 33 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 31 |
| 7 | Ulytau | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Zhenys | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | -3 | 26 |
| 9 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 23 |
| 10 | Kaspiy | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 22 |
| 11 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | -7 | 22 |
| 12 | Atyrau | 20 | 3 | 11 | 6 | -4 | 20 |
| 13 | Kaisar | 21 | 3 | 11 | 7 | -8 | 20 |
| 14 | Zhetysu | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 19 |
| 15 | Irtysh | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -8 | 17 |
| 16 | Altay | 22 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -16 | 17 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.