Atyrau vs Kaspiy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Atyrau and 0.65 for Kaspiy, a combined total of 1.67. That distribution gives Atyrau the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

77.1% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 0.65

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atyrau home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atyrau to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 33% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Atyrau and 0.65 for Kaspiy, a combined 1.67 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Atyrau win44%

Draw33%

Kaspiy win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

67%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals50%

Over 2.5 goals24%

Over 3.5 goals9%

Both teams to score31%

Correct score

1–019.2%
0–018.7%
1–112.5%
0–112.2%
2–09.8%

Recent form

Atyrau

2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Altay · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yelimay Semey · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhenys · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ordabasy · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaisar · 0-1 (L)

Kaspiy

2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Altay · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhetysu · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kairat Almaty · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Tobol Kostanay · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-05T14:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 1-2 Kaspiy (Premier League)
2026-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 0-2 Kaspiy (Premier League)
2023-08-12T13:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 1-0 Kaspiy (Premier League)
2023-05-07T11:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 1-1 Kaspiy (Premier League)
2022-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 3-2 Kaspiy (Premier League)
2022-04-16T11:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 1-2 Kaspiy (Premier League)
2021-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 1-2 Kaspiy (Premier League)
2021-05-02T12:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 2-1 Kaspiy (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ordabasy	28	21	4	3	38	67
2	Kairat Almaty	28	19	6	3	37	63
3	FC Astana	28	15	7	6	17	52
4	Okzhetpes	29	15	6	8	8	51
5	Aktobe	28	13	6	9	7	45
6	Yelimay Semey	28	12	8	8	2	44
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	29	12	5	12	1	41
8	Ulytau	29	9	8	12	-8	35
9	Kaspiy	29	9	6	14	-11	33
10	Zhenys	28	8	8	12	-9	32
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	29	8	6	15	-12	30
12	Atyrau	28	5	12	11	-10	27
13	Altay	28	6	8	14	-11	26
14	Irtysh	28	6	8	14	-16	26
15	Zhetysu	29	6	8	15	-18	26
16	Kaisar	28	4	12	12	-15	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 77.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.

A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.