Atyrau vs Ordabasy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Atyrau and 1.70 for Ordabasy, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Ordabasy the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ordabasy win

59.5% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.78 – 1.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Atyrau home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ordabasy away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Atyrau win17%

Draw24%

Ordabasy win60%

Double chance 1X

41%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

83%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

0–114.3%
0–212.2%
1–111.1%
1–29.4%
0–08.4%

Recent form

Atyrau

2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Altay · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yelimay Semey · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhenys · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ordabasy · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaisar · 0-1 (L)

Ordabasy

2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atyrau · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Astana · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Okzhetpes · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyzyl-Zhar · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Altay · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 0-3 Ordabasy (Premier League)
2026-04-04T14:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 1-1 Ordabasy (Premier League)
2025-08-03T15:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 2-2 Ordabasy (Premier League)
2025-05-03T11:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 1-2 Ordabasy (Premier League)
2024-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 0-1 Ordabasy (Premier League)
2024-03-06T12:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 1-1 Ordabasy (Premier League)
2023-07-15T14:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 1-1 Ordabasy (Premier League)
2023-06-03T15:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 1-2 Ordabasy (Premier League)
2022-10-01T12:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 0-2 Ordabasy (Premier League)
2022-07-29T13:00:00.000Z · Atyrau 2-1 Ordabasy (Cup)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ordabasy	29	21	5	3	38	68
2	Kairat Almaty	29	19	7	3	37	64
3	FC Astana	29	15	8	6	17	53
4	Okzhetpes	29	15	6	8	8	51
5	Aktobe	29	13	7	9	7	46
6	Yelimay Semey	29	12	9	8	2	45
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	29	12	5	12	1	41
8	Ulytau	29	9	8	12	-8	35
9	Zhenys	29	8	9	12	-9	33
10	Kaspiy	29	9	6	14	-11	33
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	29	8	6	15	-12	30
12	Irtysh	29	7	8	14	-15	29
13	Altay	29	6	9	14	-11	27
14	Atyrau	29	5	12	12	-11	27
15	Zhetysu	29	6	8	15	-18	26
16	Kaisar	29	4	13	12	-15	25

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ordabasy win, at 59.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.