Turkestan Arena · Referee D. Tevyashov · Analysis updated 17:35 UTC
Atyrau vs Yelimay Semey Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Atyrau and 1.19 for Yelimay Semey, a combined total of 2.21. That distribution gives Yelimay Semey the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.19
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Atyrau home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Yelimay Semey away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Yelimay Semey to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 31% / 29% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for Atyrau and 1.19 for Yelimay Semey, a combined 2.21 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.3%
- 0–113.0%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–011.0%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Atyrau
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Altay · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Yelimay Semey · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhenys · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ordabasy · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaisar · 0-1 (L)
Yelimay Semey
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulytau · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Atyrau · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Tobol Kostanay · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Zhetysu · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 29 | 21 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 68 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 28 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 63 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 52 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 29 | 15 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 51 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 45 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 44 |
| 7 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 41 |
| 8 | Ulytau | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Zhenys | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | -9 | 33 |
| 10 | Kaspiy | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 33 |
| 11 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | -12 | 30 |
| 12 | Atyrau | 28 | 5 | 12 | 11 | -10 | 27 |
| 13 | Altay | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 26 |
| 14 | Irtysh | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -16 | 26 |
| 15 | Zhetysu | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -18 | 26 |
| 16 | Kaisar | 28 | 4 | 12 | 12 | -15 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.