Aubagne vs Thionville Lusitanos Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.09 expected goals for Aubagne and 1.36 for Thionville Lusitanos, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Thionville Lusitanos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

69.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.09 – 1.36

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Aubagne home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thionville Lusitanos away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thionville Lusitanos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 30% / 27% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.09 goals for Aubagne and 1.36 for Thionville Lusitanos, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Aubagne win30%

Draw27%

Thionville Lusitanos win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

70%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–112.8%
0–111.7%
1–09.4%
1–28.7%
0–08.6%

Recent form

Aubagne

2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs La Roche VF · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fleury 91 · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Rouen · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Concarneau · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Gobelins · 0-0 (D)

Thionville Lusitanos

2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Puy Foot · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs La Roche VF · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Fleury 91 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Rouen · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-05T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Concarneau · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	La Roche VF	10	6	3	1	6	21
2	Rouen	10	6	2	2	10	20
3	Versailles	10	6	1	3	2	19
4	Caen	10	6	0	4	6	18
5	Concarneau	10	4	5	1	4	17
6	Le Puy Foot	10	5	1	4	3	16
7	Amiens	10	4	4	2	9	16
8	Cannes	10	3	6	1	6	15
9	Fleury 91	10	4	3	3	4	15
10	Gobelins	10	4	3	3	0	15
11	Quevilly	10	3	4	3	-3	13
12	Thionville Lusitanos	10	3	3	4	-1	12
13	Bastia	10	3	3	4	-4	12
14	Valenciennes	10	2	3	5	-5	9
15	Orleans	10	2	3	5	-5	9
16	Aubagne	10	2	1	7	-7	7
17	Villefranche	10	2	1	7	-14	7
18	Bourg-en-bresse 01	10	1	2	7	-11	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.