· Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
Aubstadt vs Illertissen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Aubstadt and 1.67 for Illertissen, a combined total of 2.88. That distribution gives Illertissen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Illertissen win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Aubstadt home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Illertissen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Illertissen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 28% / 24% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.21 goals for Aubstadt and 1.67 for Illertissen, a combined 2.88 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–19.4%
- 0–27.8%
- 2–16.9%
Recent form
Aubstadt
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Nürnberg II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Schwaben Augsburg · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Illertissen · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Landsberg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Memmingen · 0-1 (L)
Illertissen
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayern München II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayreuth · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Unterhaching · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-07T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Landsberg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Schwaben Augsburg · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Bayern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Memmingen | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 33 |
| 2 | Buchbach | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 29 |
| 3 | SpVgg Unterhaching | 15 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | TSV 1860 München | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 24 |
| 5 | Augsburg II | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 24 |
| 6 | Illertissen | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 7 | Bayreuth | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 22 |
| 8 | Vilzing | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 21 |
| 9 | Eichstätt | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 21 |
| 10 | Wacker Burghausen | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 20 |
| 11 | Nürnberg II | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 20 |
| 12 | Bayern München II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 |
| 13 | Eltersdorf | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 14 | Schwaben Augsburg | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 18 |
| 15 | FC Schweinfurt 05 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 16 | Greuther Fürth II | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -6 | 13 |
| 17 | Ansbach | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -17 | 12 |
| 18 | Aubstadt | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -7 | 11 |
| 19 | Landsberg | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | -16 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Illertissen win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.