· Analysis updated 05:53 UTC
Auchinleck Talbot vs Cumnock Juniors Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.82 expected goals for Auchinleck Talbot and 1.23 for Cumnock Juniors, a combined total of 5.05. That distribution gives Auchinleck Talbot the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Auchinleck Talbot win
82.7% probability
Expected goals
3.82 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Auchinleck Talbot home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cumnock Juniors away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Auchinleck Talbot to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 83% / 10% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.82 goals for Auchinleck Talbot and 1.23 for Cumnock Juniors, a combined 5.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
93%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–17.3%
- 4–17.0%
- 3–06.0%
- 2–15.7%
- 4–05.7%
Recent form
Auchinleck Talbot
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Cumnock Juniors · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cumnock Juniors · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Kilwinning Rangers · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Largs Thistle · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Caledonian Braves · 3-1 (W)
Cumnock Juniors
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Auchinleck Talbot · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Auchinleck Talbot · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Troon FC · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Beith · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dalbeattie Star · 6-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · Auchinleck Talbot 2-1 Cumnock Juniors (FA Cup)
Football League - Lowland League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kilwinning Rangers | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 30 |
| 2 | Pollok | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 3 | Tranent Juniors | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 26 |
| 4 | Linlithgow Rose | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 25 |
| 5 | Hill Of Beath Hawthorn | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 25 |
| 6 | Broxburn Athletic | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Clydebank | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 23 |
| 8 | Largs Thistle | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 9 | Auchinleck Talbot | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 22 |
| 10 | Caledonian Braves | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 11 | Brechin | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 12 | Lochee United | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 20 |
| 13 | Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 19 |
| 14 | Johnstone Burgh | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 15 | Celtic II | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 17 |
| 16 | Cumnock Juniors | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 17 | Civil Service Strollers | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 18 | Bo'ness United | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 19 | Troon FC | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -2 | 15 |
| 20 | Cumbernauld Colts | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 21 | East Stirlingshire | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 |
| 22 | Gretna 2008 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 11 |
| 23 | Cowdenbeath | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 10 |
| 24 | Musselburgh Athletic | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 25 | Renfrew | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 26 | Beith | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -16 | 9 |
| 27 | Albion Rovers | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 8 |
| 28 | Gala Fairydean Rovers | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -9 | 6 |
| 29 | Berwick Rangers | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 5 |
| 30 | Dunipace | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 4 |
| 31 | Newton Stewart | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -31 | 4 |
| 32 | Stirling University | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -17 | 3 |
| 33 | Dalbeattie Star | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -33 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Auchinleck Talbot win, at 82.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.