Auckland City vs Fencibles United Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Auckland City and 1.12 for Fencibles United, a combined total of 3.42. That distribution gives Auckland City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Auckland City win

64.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.30 – 1.12

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Auckland City home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Auckland City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 19% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Auckland City and 1.12 for Fencibles United, a combined 3.42 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 61%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

Auckland City win64%

Draw19%

Fencibles United win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

2–19.7%
2–08.7%
1–18.4%
1–07.5%
3–17.4%

Recent form

Auckland City

2026-08-22T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Coast · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-19T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Rewa · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-16T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vénus · 4-3 (W)
2026-08-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Tiga Sport · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-10T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Coast · 2-1 (W)

Fencibles United

2026-08-15T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Nelson Suburbs · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-25T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Auckland City · 3-2 (W)
2026-07-04T06:00:00.000Z · H vs South Auckland Rangers · 3-0 (W)
2025-08-30T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Tauranga City United · 3-3 (D)
2025-08-23T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Bay Olympic · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League - Northern table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Western Springs	22	13	3	6	14	42
2	Birkenhead United	22	12	5	5	22	41
3	Auckland United	22	12	4	6	15	40
4	Auckland City	22	12	4	6	11	40
5	Eastern Suburbs	22	12	4	6	8	40
6	East Coast Bays	22	10	6	6	5	36
7	Tauranga City United	22	9	3	10	4	30
8	Bay Olympic	22	6	6	10	-10	24
9	Auckland II	22	6	5	11	-4	23
10	Fencibles United	22	5	6	11	-12	21
11	Manurewa	22	4	4	14	-33	16
12	West Coast Rangers	22	3	6	13	-20	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Auckland City win, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.