Kiwitea Street · Referee A. Wilson · Analysis updated 06:16 UTC
Auckland City vs Hamilton Wanderers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Auckland City and 1.26 for Hamilton Wanderers, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Auckland City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Auckland City win
50.4% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Auckland City home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hamilton Wanderers away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Auckland City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Auckland City and 1.26 for Hamilton Wanderers, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.7%
Recent form
Auckland City
- 2026-08-22T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Coast · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Rewa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vénus · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Tiga Sport · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-10T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Coast · 2-1 (W)
Hamilton Wanderers
- 2025-06-14T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Manukau United · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-05-31T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Northern Rovers · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-05-10T02:00:00.000Z · A vs South Auckland Rangers · 5-1 (W)
- 2024-08-31T05:30:00.000Z · A vs Western Springs · 1-2 (L)
- 2024-08-24T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastern Suburbs · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - Northern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Springs | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 42 |
| 2 | Birkenhead United | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 41 |
| 3 | Auckland United | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 40 |
| 4 | Auckland City | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 40 |
| 5 | Eastern Suburbs | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 40 |
| 6 | East Coast Bays | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 36 |
| 7 | Tauranga City United | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 30 |
| 8 | Bay Olympic | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 24 |
| 9 | Auckland II | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -4 | 23 |
| 10 | Fencibles United | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -12 | 21 |
| 11 | Manurewa | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -33 | 16 |
| 12 | West Coast Rangers | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -20 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Auckland City win, at 50.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.