Govind Park · Analysis updated 08:30 UTC
Auckland City vs Rewa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.15 expected goals for Auckland City and 1.90 for Rewa, a combined total of 5.05. That distribution gives Auckland City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Auckland City win
62.6% probability
Expected goals
3.15 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Auckland City home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rewa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Auckland City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 16% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.15 goals for Auckland City and 1.90 for Rewa, a combined 5.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–16.3%
- 2–16.0%
- 3–26.0%
- 2–25.7%
- 4–15.0%
Recent form
Auckland City
- 2026-08-22T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Coast · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Rewa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vénus · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Tiga Sport · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-10T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Coast · 2-1 (W)
Rewa
- 2026-08-19T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Toti City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-12T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Tupapa Maraerenga · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-09T03:00:00.000Z · A vs ABM Galaxy · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-09-28T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Nasinu · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Auckland City win, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.