· Analysis updated 03:09 UTC
Auckland City vs Takapuna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.62 expected goals for Auckland City and 1.44 for Takapuna, a combined total of 4.06. That distribution gives Auckland City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Auckland City win
62.7% probability
Expected goals
2.62 – 1.44
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Auckland City home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Takapuna away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Auckland City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 18% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.62 goals for Auckland City and 1.44 for Takapuna, a combined 4.06 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 3–17.4%
- 1–16.5%
- 2–26.1%
- 2–05.9%
Recent form
Auckland City
- 2026-08-22T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Coast · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Rewa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vénus · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Tiga Sport · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-10T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Coast · 2-1 (W)
Takapuna
- 2026-07-04T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland City · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-06-02T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Fencibles United · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-05-11T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Internationale · 6-0 (W)
- 2024-05-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs North Shore United · 1-3 (L)
- 2023-09-02T03:00:00.000Z · A vs West Coast Rangers · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Chatham Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 |
| 2 | Fencibles United | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 3 | Napier City Rovers | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 4 | Nelson Suburbs | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Auckland City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Auckland United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Miramar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Hibiscus Coast | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Melville United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Cambridge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 11 | Island Bay | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 12 | South Auckland Rangers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 13 | Takapuna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 14 | Petone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 15 | Northern AFC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 16 | Dunedin City Royals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Auckland City win, at 62.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.