Go Media Stadium · Referee D. Woods · Analysis updated 13:01 UTC
Auckland vs Perth Glory Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.19 expected goals for Auckland and 1.61 for Perth Glory, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Auckland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Auckland win
51.2% probability
Expected goals
2.19 – 1.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Perth Glory away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Auckland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 21% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.19 goals for Auckland and 1.61 for Perth Glory, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 71%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 1–17.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–26.3%
- 3–16.3%
Recent form
Auckland
Perth Glory
- 2026-10-23T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Brisbane Roar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Macarthur · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-21T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Lions · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Macarthur | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Sydney | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Brisbane Roar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Auckland | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 7 | Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Melbourne City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 11 | Adelaide United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 12 | Perth Glory | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Auckland win, at 51.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.