Skonto stadions · Referee V. Spasjonnikovs · Analysis updated 16:16 UTC
Auda vs FK Liepaja Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Auda and 1.13 for FK Liepaja, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Auda the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Auda win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Auda home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FK Liepaja away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Auda
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rīgas FS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ogre United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Riga · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Grobiņa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs BFC Daugavpils · 2-2 (D)
FK Liepaja
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Daugavpils · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ogre United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rīgas FS · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-31T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Riga · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Auda · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-25T16:00:00.000Z · Auda 1-0 FK Liepaja (Virsliga)
- 2026-07-11T15:00:00.000Z · Auda 1-0 FK Liepaja (Cup)
- 2026-05-22T15:00:00.000Z · Auda 3-1 FK Liepaja (Virsliga)
- 2026-04-08T15:00:00.000Z · Auda 2-1 FK Liepaja (Virsliga)
- 2025-10-20T15:00:00.000Z · Auda 1-2 FK Liepaja (Virsliga)
- 2025-07-27T14:00:00.000Z · Auda 0-2 FK Liepaja (Virsliga)
- 2025-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · Auda 0-0 FK Liepaja (Virsliga)
- 2025-04-09T15:00:00.000Z · Auda 3-0 FK Liepaja (Virsliga)
- 2024-10-05T12:00:00.000Z · Auda 1-2 FK Liepaja (Virsliga)
- 2024-09-25T15:00:00.000Z · Auda 3-0 FK Liepaja (Cup)
Virsliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 30 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 49 | 74 |
| 2 | Riga | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 56 | 73 |
| 3 | Auda | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 61 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | -2 | 43 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 39 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -11 | 35 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | -17 | 32 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -31 | 26 |
| 9 | Tukums | 31 | 5 | 9 | 17 | -17 | 24 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 31 | 4 | 6 | 21 | -46 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Auda win, at 49.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.