Stadio Domenico Monterisi · Referee C. Ursini · Analysis updated 11:09 UTC
Audace Cerignola vs Casertana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Audace Cerignola and 1.06 for Casertana, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Audace Cerignola the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Audace Cerignola win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Audace Cerignola home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Casertana away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Audace Cerignola to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 25% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Audace Cerignola and 1.06 for Casertana, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.7%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
Audace Cerignola
- 2026-10-04T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Team Altamura · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs AZ Picerno · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Casertana · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Casarano · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Giugliano · 4-0 (W)
Casertana
- 2026-10-23T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Bari · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Sorrento · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs SS Monopoli · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Cavese · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Catania · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C - Girone C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 26 |
| 2 | Bari | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 3 | Sorrento | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 4 | Catania | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 19 |
| 5 | SS Monopoli | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 6 | Audace Cerignola | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Scafatese | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 | Casertana | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 9 | Cavese | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 10 | Salernitana | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Inter U23 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| 12 | Foggia | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | AZ Picerno | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 | Team Altamura | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 15 | Barletta | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Savoia | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Casarano | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 11 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 10 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -14 | 6 |
| 20 | Crotone | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Audace Cerignola win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.