· Analysis updated 02:48 UTC
Audax Rio vs São Cristóvão RJ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Audax Rio and 1.05 for São Cristóvão RJ, a combined total of 1.70. That distribution gives São Cristóvão RJ the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
77.6% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Audax Rio home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates São Cristóvão RJ to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 22% / 33% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for Audax Rio and 1.05 for São Cristóvão RJ, a combined 1.70 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 24% and both teams to score at 31%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–119.2%
- 0–018.3%
- 1–112.5%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–210.1%
Recent form
Audax Rio
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs São Cristóvão RJ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Duque de Caxias · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nova Cidade · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Petrópolis · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Serrano RJ · 0-1 (L)
São Cristóvão RJ
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duque de Caxias | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Niteroiense | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Goytacaz | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Petrópolis | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 15 |
| 6 | Artsul | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Campo Grande | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 8 | Macaé | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | São Cristóvão RJ | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 10 | Nova Cidade | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Audax Rio | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 5 |
| 12 | Carapebus | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 77.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.